WASHINGTON, July 7 (San Diego News Online) — NOAA forecasters say El Niño is already present in the equatorial Pacific and is expected to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27. The Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory on June 11, which is NOAA’s official signal that El Niño conditions are underway.
For people in Washington, D.C., this is not a local storm warning. It is a broad seasonal forecast that can shape weather patterns across the United States and beyond. The practical step is to keep an eye on NOAA’s seasonal outlooks and local National Weather Service forecasts as winter gets closer.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It happens when sea-surface temperatures in parts of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific run above average for long enough to influence the atmosphere.
NOAA said the warming has expanded over the past month, with above-average sea-surface temperatures across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The agency said the first signs appeared in the far eastern equatorial Pacific in early February, then spread farther west by mid-April.
The Climate Prediction Center said the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index was +0.7 degrees Celsius. It also reported Niño-4 at +0.7 degrees Celsius and Niño-1+2 at +2.1 degrees Celsius. Forecasters use those regional temperature measurements to track how much of the Pacific is warming.
Why does it matter?
El Niño changes wind and rainfall patterns over the tropical Pacific, and those shifts can ripple into weather far from the ocean itself. The exact effects depend on the strength of the event, the time of year and the region.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said its model guidance, including the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and the NCEP CFSv2 model, points to El Niño getting stronger into winter 2026-27. The agency said there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January, which it said could place the event among the largest in the historical record that goes back to 1950.
NOAA’s Ocean Service says El Niño can increase the odds of high tide flooding in some U.S. locations. That does not mean every coastal area will flood, but it does mean people in flood-prone places should pay attention to local coastal flood guidance as the season unfolds.
What should readers watch next?
The most useful updates will come from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the National Weather Service and local forecast offices as new ocean and atmosphere data come in. Seasonal outlooks can change as the event develops.
For now, the key takeaway is simple: NOAA says El Niño is underway, and the odds favor a stronger event by winter. That makes the coming months important for anyone following seasonal weather trends, coastal flooding risk or winter planning.
